Black swans and the Pareto principle: preparing for the unpredictable

15/10/2014

The analysis of future scenarios shows that unpredictable, rare and violent phenomena, known as “black swans”, remain more than probable. The planet is effectively faced with a growing number of events which are increasingly devastating, and which contrast with the statistical data of the past, and remind us of our vulnerability to extreme climatic phenomena and the weakness of our predictive models with regard to the unknown. Black swans are often seen as of secondary importance in global forecasting approaches. However, given the importance of their impacts on communities and on fragile economies, they should be central to discussions about anticipation, prevention, prediction and preparation procedures in more and more regions of the world.